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Making Essential Choices with Scant Information
 
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Making Essential Choices with Scant Information
Front-end Decision Making in Major Projects
 
 
Palgrave Macmillan
 
 
 
 
 
26 Mar 2009
|
£80.00
|Hardback Print on Demand
  
9780230205864
||
 
 
eBooks ebook on Palgrave Connect ebook available via library subscriptions ebook on ebooks.com 
 
 


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DescriptionContentsAuthors



A new look at how projects can be successfully aligned with the desired direction; how sufficient, appropriate and valid information can be gathered at the front-end; how information can be analysed; and finally how decisions can be made. 
 
Each chapter of the book is written by an expert in the field, and each chapter speaks for itself. However, some key themes run throughout the book. These include: the need for alignment between organisational strategy and the project concept; dealing with complexity, in particular the systemicity and interrelatedness within project decisions; consideration of the ambiguity implicit in all major projects; taking into account psychological and political biases within estimation of benefits and costs; consideration of the social geography and politics within decision-making groups; and preparation for the turbulence within the project environment, including the maintenance of strategic alignment.


Description



A new look at how projects can be successfully aligned with the desired direction; how sufficient, appropriate and valid information can be gathered at the front-end; how information can be analysed; and finally how decisions can be made. 
 
Each chapter of the book is written by an expert in the field, and each chapter speaks for itself. However, some key themes run throughout the book. These include: the need for alignment between organisational strategy and the project concept; dealing with complexity, in particular the systemicity and interrelatedness within project decisions; consideration of the ambiguity implicit in all major projects; taking into account psychological and political biases within estimation of benefits and costs; consideration of the social geography and politics within decision-making groups; and preparation for the turbulence within the project environment, including the maintenance of strategic alignment.


Contents

PART I: INTRODUCTION
Decisions Made on Scant Information: Overview; T.Williams
Projects, their Quality at Entry - and Challenges in the Front-end Phase; K.Samset
PART II: ALIGNING PROJECTS
Implementing Strategy through Project Management: The Importance of Managing the Project Front-end; P. Morris
Scenarios Planning; K. van der Heijden
Up-front Assessment of Needs; P.Naess
Front-end Alignment of Projects – Doing the Right Project; T.Cooke-Davies
Using Soft Systems Methodology to Structure Project Definition; M.Winter
PART III: GENERATING INFORMATION
Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development; B.Flyvbjerg
Decision Behaviour – Improving Expert Judgement; G.Kirkebøen
Useful Heuristics; B.Scheibehenne& B.von Helversen
Expert Judgment of Probability and Risk; G.Wright, F.Bolger,& G.Rowe
Evaluation of Risks in Complex Problems; G.Parnell
Obtaining Distributions from Groups for Decisions under Uncertainty; R.Cooke
PART IV: ANALYSING INFORMATION
Exploratory Quantitative Analysis of Emergent Problems with Scant Information; T.Bedford
Analyzing Information: Techniques and Analyses; B.Andersen
Parametric Analysis; P.Pugh
PART V: MAKING DECISIONS
The Impact of New Information; K.Sunnevaag
The Complexity of Decision-making in Large Projects with Multiple Partners: Be Prepared to Change; R.Miller& B.Hobbs
From Analysis to Decision – Economic Assessment; K.Hagen





Authors


TERRY WILLIAMS is a Management Scientist at Southampton University, UK. After 9 years in engineering consultancy developing project risk management, he worked at Strathclyde University, becoming Professor and Department Head, researching the behaviour of major projects and supporting post-project claims. He is a speaker/writer on project modelling, and has written 60 refereed journal articles and books on modelling and learning from complex projects. He is a member of many leading research networks.
 
KJELL SUNNEVÅG is a senior adviser at the Norwegian Competition Authority. He has worked as a research economist since 1987. His first position was at the Christian Michelsen Institute (CMI) in Bergen, research focus being on petroleum economics. Later, he moved to the Foundation for research in Economics and Business Administration (SNF), extending the research interests to energy economics and public policy and economics. One of his last assignments there was editing/contribute to a report on making decisions based on scant information.
 
KNUT SAMSET is Professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology and director of a research program on front-end management of major investment projects. He has a background in engineering and social science and has worked many years as consultant and advisor to national and international governmental organizations. He has written a number of books on project design, evaluation, and project risk management.