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Update 2 (March 2005):
Turkey:
Well on the way to Europe?
On the eve of Turkey's general election in November 2002, many worried that the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi or
AKP )might presage an Islamist take-over of what is officially one of the world's most secular states. AKP was the successor to a series of Muslim parties which the country's constitutional court, possibly under pressure from the Turkish Army, had declared illegal, and its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was still banned from standing for parliament after what was declared an inflammatory speech made back in 1998.
A few years on, these fears turned out to have been exaggerated. True there have been a couple of high-profile controversies: one over a possible end to the country's prohibition on women wearing the Muslim headscarf whilst working for the state or attending state functions; the other over a quickly aborted plan to criminalize adultery. But these headline-grabbing spats should not be allowed to obscure the fact that the government presided over by Mr Erdogan (who persuaded parliament to overturn his ban), has brought not only political stability but also prosperity to a country whose aspirations to join the EU are sometimes mocked as unrealistic given the apparent fragility of its democracy and its undoubted poverty.
Helped in part by an administration that seems genuine in its commitment to root out state-centred corruption, Turkey's GDP growth is more than double that of the EU, and it even appears to be tackling its traditional troubles with inflation and a chronically weak currency. On the political front, a government enjoying the luxury of a divided opposition, has at least made some encouraging noises on relaxing Turkey's traditional refusal to grant significant autonomy to its
Kurdish region; it also played a skilful hand on the
Cyprus
issue: Turkish Cypriots' 'yes' to the now stalled Annan Plan
played well in the world's media.
The government's greatest achievement, however, has to be the EU's decision in mid December 2004 to begin formal
accession talks
which are scheduled to begin in October 2005. There was, however, a price. Turkey was obliged immediately to recognize Cyprus, in effect abandoning its commitment to the maintenance of a
Turkish Republic in the north of the
island, and it will, before talks begin, have to sign a customs accord covering all the existing EU-25 - including, of course, Cyprus. The EU has also made it plain that it may well place long-lasting restrictions on freedom of movement for Turks in the event that the country is invited to join, and that negotiations cannot begin to be brought to a conclusion until the EU determines its seven year budget beginning in 2014. It also expects Turkey to maintain what some see as its doubtful progress towards civilian control of the military, an independent judiciary, the safeguarding and promotion of women's, children's, minority and religious rights, as well as press freedom. Indeed the EU (which is widely thought to have kyboshed the criminalization of adultery) made it clear that accession negotiations would be suspended 'in the case of a serious and persistent breach in a candidate state of the principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms and the rule of law on which the Union is founded'. Little wonder, then, that even the optimists think the accession process will take at least 15 years!
