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Chapter 6: Elections, Voting and Referendums: Systems, turnout, preferences and unpredictability

• Chapter Summary
• Useful websites 
• Discussion questions
• Updates
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Chapter Summary

Nearly all European countries use PR systems, but for technical (though comprehensible) reasons, some are less proportional than they could be. Whether they should be is debateable!

All systems have relatively (though not entirely) predictable effects, and therefore pros and cons, but PR does not always mean multiparty politics and government, any more than 'first past the post' guarantees a two-horse race.

Social characteristics such as religion and especially class are becoming less reliable (though not yet completely hopeless) predictors of west Europeans' electoral preferences. Cleavages may now be rooted as much in conflicting values as in material interests.

European voters are now more volatile, switching between parties and making up their minds later, according more importance to the perceived credibility, issue positions and government performance of parties, rather than falling back on tribal loyalties.

This may mean that voters in the west are becoming more like voters in postcommunist countries, where there is only limited evidence of things 'settling down'.

A Europe-wide decline in turnout may be occurring, but can be overstated: turnout varies considerably according to country and the circumstances surrounding each election.

The decline is more obvious in elections for the European Parliament, which continue to play a secondary - though by not necessarily insignificant - role in domestic politics.

Referendums are quite common in Europe, but there are significant (constitutional) limits on their use and impact. Most of the arguments against 'direct' (as opposed to 'representative') democracy are not borne out by the facts, but referendums are not a miracle cure for discontent and disaffection.

Useful websites

(For general web materials on European Politics see Tim Bale's Internet Guide)


Interesting ideas and info on all aspects of the democratic process are provided by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA)  and by the Administration and Cost of Elections Project 

A more detailed exploration of voter turnout is provided by IDEA 

For recent election results, see electionworld.org and for both recent and historical results see the Parties and Elections in Europe database

Another great elections site is provided by Adam Carr 

For more on proportional representation, go to Mount Holyoke College's PR Library 

For comprehensive briefings on recent elections in Europe, check out the European Parties Elections and Referendums Network based at the University of Sussex 

For comprehensive info on, and the case for, referendums in Europe, see the Initiative and Referendum Institute 

Discussion questions

1. There is more than one type of proportional representation or PR electoral system used in Europe and they all have their strengths and weaknesses. Which do you prefer and why? 

2. What sort of rules can affect, and even undermine, the proportionality of PR systems? Can you give some examples of where these things have had an impact?

3. A handful of European countries employ 'plurality' or 'majority' systems: what do you see as the pros and cons of such systems?

4. Many people assume that a particular electoral system automatically leads to a particular party system: are they right to do so?

5. What causes variations in turnout at elections and how seriously should we take concerns about turnout dropping right across Europe?

6. Voters seem to be less loyal to parties than they once were: how would you go about explaining this?

7. Do you think class and/or religion make much difference to the way people vote any more?

8. If you were asked to sum up the differences between today's European voters and those of thirty or forty years ago, what would you say?

9. Do people vote differently in European Parliament elections?

10. Referendums are distrusted, even disdained, by their critics: do you think they have some justification for their dislike of direct democracy? 

Updates

Autonomy or Independence? Spain's Basque Country

Taking no for an answer: the causes and consequences of the French and Dutch rejection of the EU's Constitutional Treaty

Direct democracy or dirty tricks? Policy referendums in Italy and Switzerland

Poland: settling down or still wide open?

Germany's Grand Coalition, 2005-?

European Party Families and Domestic Politics

The Beach and the Ballot Box: the Catalan autonomy referendum of June 2006

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