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Update 15: July 2007 - Developments in the devolved systems

The first half of the 2007 saw momentous developments in all three devolved systems, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Developments in the Scottish system were potentially most momentous of all, for they brought to office a party dedicated to the creation of an independent state. Following the Assembly elections of 3 May 2007 the Scottish National Party (SNP) emerged as (just) the largest party, with 47 votes, a gain of 20; Labour lost 4, reducing its total to 46. These two parties now dominate Scottish parliamentary politics: the next largest group in the Scottish Parliament is the Conservatives, with 17, while the Liberal Democrats have 16 seats. The norm in Scottish government since devolution has been coalition, a striking contrast with Westminster, where single party government has been the only form of rule for over sixty years. Since devolution Labour had ruled as the main governing party in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. It had briefly seemed after the May election that the Liberal Democrats would once again participate in government, as the partner of the SNP. (A ‘rainbow’ coalition of Greens, Liberal Democrats and the SNP would have commanded 65 seats, just enough to form a simple majority). But effort at coalition creation foundered on Lib Dem opposition to a key Nationalist commitment – to holding a referendum on independence ‘with a likely date of 2010’, as the SNP manifesto put it. The water was further muddied by a series of fiascos in the conduct of the election resulting in many thousands of spoilt ballots – the result, apparently, of the decision to combine Assembly with local elections, the two systems operating distinct electoral arrangements. The main lesson of the fiasco is just how far the UK has now moved from the once traditional, monolithic ‘first past the post’ electoral system, in favour of a complex patchwork of systems operating in different national jurisdictions and at different levels. In the event Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, was voted in as first Minister on 16 May by 49 votes to 46: the Greens supported Salmond, Labour voted against and the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats abstained. The formation of a minority government is not a first for the devolved system – there was a brief, early and unhappy attempt in Wales – but the attempt in Scotland brings special uncertainty. Mr Salmond announced that he would seek to command majorities ‘policy by policy.’ One of the main potential casualties of this strategy is the very policy on which the coalition talks with the Liberal Democrats foundered - the commitment to a referendum on independence. SNP activists are now attempting to circumvent the problem of minority status by gathering a mass petition (target of 100,000 signatures) calling for the referendum to take place. But writing within two months of the formation of the new government it is presently impossible to tell how stable or otherwise the new government will be, nor how effective or otherwise it will be in pursuing the eventual aim of independence.

Details of the new Scottish Cabinet are at http:// www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Scottish-Cabinet

In Wales, small shifts in the distribution of Assembly seats were enough to destabilise the ruling Labour Adminstration. Labour lost 4 seats, achieving a total of 26; Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, gained three, leaving it with 15; the Conservatives gained one, increasing to 12; while the Liberal Democrats remained unchanged on 6. Attempts to create a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, which would have given a workable majority, failed; a prospect of coalition between Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives turned out to be a briefly tantalising fantasy. This time around the stakes had been raised in Wales, for the new Assembly inherited significantly augmented powers (see Update 9, January 2006). It seemed until the end of June that the outcome would replicate that in Scotland – a minority administration, this time Labour in composition. That would not have been unprecedented: Labour had a similar, if unhappy and brief, attempt in the first stage of devolution, and at the end of the last Assembly Labour was already ruling as a minority administration, albeit by only a small margin: it ended up with 29 seats in the 60 member assembly. But on 27 June Labour and Plaid Cymru unexpectedly announced a coalition deal. The deal was ‘unexpected’ not only to outsiders: it has aroused serious opposition in both parties. It was opposed by leading Welsh figures such as Lord (Neil) Kinnock, former leader of the UK party. But at a special Labour party conference on 6 July it was ratified by an overwhelming majority (almost 80% in favour). Although the new government was ratified by clear majorities of both the trade union and constituency sections, the majority in the latter (with 38% against) was less clear cut than among the unions. Plaid ratified the agreement on the following day, clearing the way for coalition.

The single most important feature of the deal is a commitment to a referendum to support the grant of full law making powers to the Welsh Assembly – a proposal that both parties agree to campaign in support of. This proposal shows just how unstable is the devolution settlement in Wales – if implemented it would be the second major augmentation of Assembly powers since the original devolution act. Indeed nationalists are now in office in all three devolved administrations in the UK – Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. At the time of writing it is not known how many seats Plaid Cymru will take in the new Cabinet, but Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones will certainly be deputy to First Minister Rhodri Morgan, and other Plaid AMs will join the cabinet.

Details of the new Welsh Cabinet can be found at http://wales.gov.uk/about/cabinet/cabinetm

The outcome of the Assembly elections in Northern Ireland looked at first glance utterly catastrophic for any supporter of the long drawn out peace process. The two parties that represented polar opposite positions, and that had a generation long history of poisonous confrontation, consolidated their positions as the dominant forces in the Province: the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) gained six seats, to total 36; while Sinn Fein, the standard bearer of fundamentalist nationalism, increased its share of seats by 4, to 28. The two parties that had been the architects of the original peace agreement, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, both lost ground, the UUP disastrously - its representation was reduced by 9, to 18. The results continued the trend to polarisation which had been apparent in the elections of 2003, and which helped precipitate the suspension of devolved government. (See pp. 243-4 of Politics and Governance in the UK.) Ironically, though, the results hastened an extraordinary change in the political climate. The complex architecture of coalition government in Northern Ireland (which is described on pp. 238-43 of Politics and Governance in the UK) shows what institutional design can do. Sinn Fein and the DUP were entrapped in an institutional web that compelled them to cooperate if either was to exercise any influence over government. On May 8 th the DUP leader, the Reverend Ian Paisley was sworn in as First Minister, while Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein, was sworn in as Deputy First Minister. In the freshly revived devolved administration the DUP now heads four ministries, while Sinn Fein controls three. The development was simultaneously a sign of just how far the politics of the province was being transformed, and of how far ‘normal’ bread and butter politics was beginning to shape political life. In a further sign of ‘normalisation’ the Assembly elections saw the first return of a Green assembly member for Northern Ireland.

Details of the membership of the Northern Ireland Executive are at http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/iindex/your-government/devolved-government.htm

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