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Update 9: January 2006: The Reform of Welsh Devolution

In chapter 11 of Politics and Governance in the UK, I discuss the devolution reforms introduced in 1998, including the question of how far they represent a stable political ‘settlement’ (p. 246). Some critics of devolution argue that it is unstable because it in effect opens the gates to wider decentralisation of power, leading finally to the break-up of the UK. So far there is little evidence of this instability in Scotland, but plenty that the less radical devolution conferred on Wales is anything but stable. A White Paper published by the Westminster Government in 2005 (Better Governance for Wales, Cm 6582, June 2005) outlined proposals for revised powers, and these are now embodied in the Government of Wales Bill given its First Reading at Westminster on 8 December 2005.

If enacted the legislation will come into force following the next Assembly elections due in 2007. It will have three main provisions. First, it confers enhanced legislative powers on the Assembly – for more on these, see below. Second, it seeks to make Welsh arrangement more like a fully fledged system of government by sharpening the difference between the roles and powers of executive and legislative branch in Wales, and strengthening the ability of the Assembly to hold Ministers to account. Third, and potentially most momentous, it holds out the prospect of removing the critical distinction that presently exists between the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly: that the Parliament can pass ‘primary’ legislation – has its own independent law making powers – while the Assembly does not. Under the Bill the Assembly can in the future enjoy full law making powers. This provision is, however, circumscribed by one important condition: ‘triggering’ the provision will require a referendum of the Welsh people.

The proposals further highlight the problem of the stability of the original devolution arrangements. The enhanced legislative powers contained in the present Bill will be produced by the ad hoc method of Orders in Council on particular policy areas laid before the Westminster Parliament. Orders in Council are in practice subject to little or no scrutiny. Thus the proposals extend the range of devolution, but without any corresponding increase in mechanisms of accountability. This is what makes the proposal to trigger full law making powers by the Assembly itself so significant. That in turn depends on both calling and winning a referendum after 2007. We saw in the pages of our text that, despite the differences in formal powers between devolved Scotland and Wales, the distinctive policy outcomes were often remarkably similar (pp. 226-8), and that devolution has also fostered the development of distinct political ‘communities’ in Edinburgh and Cardiff. The outcome of a new Welsh referendum will test how far these changes have also extended to the creation of a distinctive popular political culture.

Holding and winning a referendum involves overcoming a series of obstacles. Triggering the referendum requires approval of an Order in Council by both Houses of the Westminster Parliament, probably not a stiff test; and support of two thirds of the members of the Assembly, potentially a daunting test. Once triggered, the chances of success are, however, fairly good: under the present Bill (clause 102) only a simple majority of those voting is required for the proposal to come into force.

The White Paper Better Governance for Wales can be accessed at http://www.walesoffice.gov.uk/2005/better_governance_for_wales_report.pdf. The Bill itself and a guide to the Bill can found at www.walesoffice.gov.uk/GoWguide.html.

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