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Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables
 
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Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables
 
 
Palgrave Macmillan
 
 
 
 
 
21 Jan 2005
|
£73.00
|Hardback Print on Demand
  
9781403941565
||
 
 
13 Jan 2005
|
£29.50
|Paperback Print on Demand
  
9781403941572
||
 
 
eBooks ebook on Palgrave Connect ebook available via library subscriptions ebook on ebooks.com 
 
 


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DescriptionContentsAuthors

In recent years there has been a growing recognition that forecasts of the single most likely outcome of the future value of an economic or financial variable may often be of limited value. A government policy maker or an individual investor would generally be interested in knowing the degree of uncertainty that the forecaster attaches to the point forecast, before deciding whether to increase interest rates or buy a particular share. As a result, it has become increasingly common for producers of forecasts to provide more information on the expected likely ranges of future outcomes, whether in the form of interval forecasts, or by reporting probability distributions. This book describes methods of evaluating such forecasts.


Description

In recent years there has been a growing recognition that forecasts of the single most likely outcome of the future value of an economic or financial variable may often be of limited value. A government policy maker or an individual investor would generally be interested in knowing the degree of uncertainty that the forecaster attaches to the point forecast, before deciding whether to increase interest rates or buy a particular share. As a result, it has become increasingly common for producers of forecasts to provide more information on the expected likely ranges of future outcomes, whether in the form of interval forecasts, or by reporting probability distributions. This book describes methods of evaluating such forecasts.


Contents

Introduction
Point Forecasts
Volatility Forecasts
Interval Forecasts
Density Forecasts
Decision-based Evaluation
Postscript
Computer Code
References


Authors

MICHAEL P. CLEMENTS is an editor of the International Journal of Forecasting, and has co-authored two books on economic forecasting as well as a number of papers in scientific journals. With David F. Hendry he edited A Companion to Economic Forecasting.