Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Economic Review and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book presents background papers and case studies commissioned by the Asian Development Bank in support of ASEAN+3 efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book (i) analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, (ii) describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, (iii) assesses the predictive power of EWS models, and (iv) high-lights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modeling using data from six East Asian countries. The book provides a useful reference for those specializing in economic and financial monitoring, crisis prevention, financial risk management, macroeconomics, and international finance. These include government officials; economic/investment analysts; executives of banks, corporations, and international financial institutions; academic researchers; and students.

Foreword
Overview; J.Zhuang & P.B.Rana
Theories of Currency and Banking Crises: A Literature Review; S.Claessens
Predicting Financial Crises: An Overview; M.Goldstein
Nonparametric EWS Models of Currency and Banking Crises for East Asia; J.Zhuang
A Parametric EWS Model of Currency Crises for East Asia; Y. Koo, C.S.Oh, H.Joo, S.Lee, J.A.Tan III & J.Zhuang

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK is a finance institution established in 1966, dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific.