Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiv

   PDF

2. Overview

   • Juzhong Zhuang, Pradumna B. Rana

   Pages 1-7

3. Theories of Currency and Banking Crises: A Literature Review

   • Stijn Claessens

   Pages 9-20

4. Predicting Financial Crises: An Overview

   • Morris Goldstein

   Pages 21-37

5. Nonparametric EWS Models of Currency and Banking Crises for East Asia

   • Juzhong Zhuang

   Pages 39-122

6. A Parametric EWS Model of Currency Crises for East Asia

   • Younghoon Koo, Chang Seok Oh, Hyunsoo Joo, Seungjae Lee, Jose Antonio Tan III

   Pages 123-151

Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.

• ASEAN
• Asia
• development
• East Asia

STIJIN CLAESSENS Professor of International Finance, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands MORRIS GOLDSTEIN Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, USA HYUNSOO JOO Strategist, Tong Yang Investment Bank, Korea YOUNGHOON KOO Managing Director, Lotte Economic Research Center, Korea SEUNGJAE LEE Research Analyst, Early Warning System Team, Korea Center for International Finance, Korea CHANG SEOK OH Chief Strategist & Head, Early Warning System Team, Korea Center for International Finance, Korea JOSE ANTONIO TAN III Consultant, Asian Development Bank, Philippines JUZHONG ZHUANG Principal Economist, Asian Development Bank, Philippines

Policies and ethics