Authors:
- Shows how, and why, such factors and the retreat from globalisation will reverse recent trends, leading to higher inflation but less inequality
- Presents a sharply different viewpoint from most current analyses, including secular stagnation
- Examines the manifold problems caused by the ageing of our economies, ranging from macroeconomics through fiscal policy to dementia
- Reaches different conclusions from others by focusing on the economy of the whole world, rather than on individual countries or regions
- The first in its genre to take Asia seriously, viewing the role of China, in particular, as the most important development of the last, and next, 30 years
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Table of contents (14 chapters)
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Front Matter
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Back Matter
About this book
This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Reviews
“Charles Goodhart and Manon Pradhan have provided us an impressively articulated, well-reasoned, and thoroughly researched tour de force of the demographic forces that have impacted the evolution of the world economy and their interrelationships over the past 100 years or so … . the research and thoughtful analysis provide the reader with an insightful window into the policy problems facing developing and emerging economies alike as we face the future.” (Robert Eisenbeis, Business Economics, Vol. 56, 2021)
“I appreciate the global scope of this book and its emphasis on the complexity and interconnectedness of the global economy. This is the kind of long-term thinking that economists, policymakers, and othersmay find beneficial.” (insurancenewsnet.com, June 25, 2021)
“I think this is a very good forecast. … The book interestingly comments on an implied cycle in the standing of macroeconomics and macroeconomists. … their argument is well worth pondering and entering into our considerations of the biggest economic risks ahead.” (Alex J. Pollock, Law & Liberty, lawliberty.org, May 18, 2021)
“The Great Demographic Reversal is packed with informative charts and tables. It presents a powerful, well-argued challenge to the ‘mainstream’ view that low growth, inflation and nominal interest rates are here to stay. Above all, its message that everyday economics needs to take demography seriously is surely correct.” (Diane Coyle, Financial Times, December 2, 2020)
“This thought-provoking book is a great read, and there is no need to be an economist to enjoy it.” (Philip Turner, Central Banking, centralbanking.com, November 16, 2020)
“It is a pleasure to read a book this well argued. There is a good deal of careful analysis and there are lots of tables and graphs.” (Charles Taylor, Financial World, November 2020-January 2021)
Authors and Affiliations
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London School of Economics, London, UK
Charles Goodhart
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Talking Heads Macro, London, UK
Manoj Pradhan
About the authors
Charles Goodhart was appointed to the newly established Norman Sosnow Chair of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE) in September 1985, which he held until his retirement in 2002 when he became Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance. He has remained at LSE at the Financial Markets Group, initially as Deputy Director, 1987-2005, and now a member in charge of the research program in financial regulation, 2005-present. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1990, and awarded the CBE in the New Years Honours List for 1997, for services to monetary economics. During 1986, he helped to found, with Professor Mervyn King, the Financial Markets Group at LSE, which began operation at the start of 1987. For the previous 17 years he served as a monetary economist at the Bank of England, becoming a Chief Adviser in 1980. Following his advice on overcoming the financial crisis in Hong Kong in 1983, and the establishment ofthe link between the HK and the US $, he subsequently served on the HK Exchange Fund Advisory Committee for several years until 1997. Later in 1997 he was appointed for three years, until May 2000, one of the four independent outside members of the newly-formed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. Between 2002 and 2004 he returned to the Bank of England as a (part-time) adviser to the Governor on Financial Stability. He became an economic consultant to Morgan Stanley at the end of 2009, where he remained until he resigned, at the age of 80, in 2016. It was during this period that he began work on the subject matter of this book with his colleague there, Manoj Pradhan.
Charles is the author of Goodhart's Law "that any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes".
Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macro, an independent macroeconomic research firm. Manoj was previouslyManaging Director at Morgan Stanley and led the Global Economics team there. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2005 after serving on the faculty of the George Washington University and the State University of New York. Manoj specializes in quantitative macroeconomics, emerging markets and global economics. He has a PhD in economics from the George Washington University and a Masters in Finance from the London Business School.
Bibliographic Information
Book Title: The Great Demographic Reversal
Book Subtitle: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival
Authors: Charles Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42657-6
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan Cham
eBook Packages: Economics and Finance, Economics and Finance (R0)
Copyright Information: The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-030-42656-9Published: 09 August 2020
eBook ISBN: 978-3-030-42657-6Published: 08 August 2020
Edition Number: 1
Number of Pages: XX, 260
Number of Illustrations: 4 b/w illustrations, 80 illustrations in colour
Topics: Popular Science in Economics, Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics, Labor Economics, International Finance, Economic Policy, Social Policy