Macroeconomic Survey Expectations

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xvi

   PDF

2. Introduction

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 1-6

3. The Nature of Survey Expectations

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 7-23

4. Working with the Forecast Data

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 25-35

5. Assessing the Point Predictions

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 37-63

6. Assessing the Accuracy of the Probability Distributions

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 65-96

7. Consistency of the Point Forecasts and Probability Distributions

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 97-122

8. Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Surveys Versus Models?

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 123-143

9. Behavioural Models of Expectations Formation

   • Michael P. Clements

   Pages 145-172

10. Expectations Shocks and the Macroeconomy

    • Michael P. Clements

    Pages 173-186

11. Postscript

    • Michael P. Clements

    Pages 187-189

12. Back Matter

    Pages 191-196

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Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series econometrics and forecasting. Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations.

• Time series econometrics
• Economic forecasting
• Macroeconomic survey expectations
• Macroeconometrics
• Expectations shocks
• Macroeconomic uncertainty
• Point Forecasts
• Probability Distributions
• Density evaluation
• Forecast data
• Behavioural Models of Expectations Formation

• ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading, UK

  Michael P. Clements

Michael Clements is Professor of Econometrics at the ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading, UK. He is Series Editor of Palgrave Texts in Econometrics and Palgrave Advanced Texts in Econometrics, and has published extensively on time series econometrics, modelling and forecasting. 

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