Defensive Expectations

Reinventing the Phillips Curve as a Policy Mix

Authors: Voinea, Liviu

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  • Presents long-run data for 35 OECD countries to formulate analysisWorks with observable variables onlyMakes a fundamental change of paradigm from flow to stockAllows for the Phillips Curve to be time-dependent

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eBook 71,68 €
price for Spain (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-030-55045-5
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Hardcover 88,39 €
price for Spain (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-030-55044-8
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  • Institutional customers should get in touch with their account manager
  • Covid-19 shipping restrictions & severe weather in the US may cause delays
  • Usually ready to be dispatched within 3 to 5 business days, if in stock
  • The final prices may differ from the prices shown due to specifics of VAT rules
About this book

This book explains why inflation remains subdued after recessions, based on three revolutionary concepts: defensive expectations, compensatory savings, and cumulative wage gap. When income falls, consumption falls, and savings rise, as people rebuild their past wealth. Households will not spend more until they fully recover what they lost. The revised Phillips Curve explains that current inflation depends on the cumulative difference between current income and past income.

This new theory is tested and validated by data for US since 1960 to date and for 35 OECD countries from 1990 to date. A number of policy implications are derived from these results. The book calls for an optimal policy mix between monetary policy and fiscal policy; it also discusses the coronavirus crisis as an extreme case of defensive expectations.

About the authors

Liviu Voinea is Senior Advisor to the Executive Director and member of the Board of the International Monetary Fund. Prior to that, he was Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Romania (2014-2019), Budget Minister in the Romanian Government (2012-2014) and Deputy Minister of Finance (2012). He is professor of economics at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies. Liviu Voinea received the Romanian Academy Award for Economics.

Table of contents (5 chapters)

Table of contents (5 chapters)

Buy this book

eBook 71,68 €
price for Spain (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-030-55045-5
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: EPUB, PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Hardcover 88,39 €
price for Spain (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-030-55044-8
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Institutional customers should get in touch with their account manager
  • Covid-19 shipping restrictions & severe weather in the US may cause delays
  • Usually ready to be dispatched within 3 to 5 business days, if in stock
  • The final prices may differ from the prices shown due to specifics of VAT rules

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Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
Defensive Expectations
Book Subtitle
Reinventing the Phillips Curve as a Policy Mix
Authors
Copyright
2021
Publisher
Palgrave Macmillan
Copyright Holder
The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
eBook ISBN
978-3-030-55045-5
DOI
10.1007/978-3-030-55045-5
Hardcover ISBN
978-3-030-55044-8
Edition Number
1
Number of Pages
XXVII, 196
Number of Illustrations
21 b/w illustrations
Topics