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An Accidental Brexit

New EU and Transatlantic Economic Perspectives

  • Book
  • © 2017

Overview

Authors:
  1. Paul J.J. Welfens

    1. European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW), University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany

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  • Examines the disorderly information campaign prior to the Brexit referendum
  • Argues that had the information from the Treasury study been included in the government's brochure to households, the result would have been a 52% majority for Remain
  • Explores the US-EU implications of Brexit
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

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Table of contents (16 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xxii
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  2. Introduction

    • Paul J. J. Welfens
    Pages 1-30

  3. The Referendum Process and Politico-Economic Aspects

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 31-31
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    2. Brexit: A Campaign and a Fatal Communication Disaster

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 33-79

    3. A Sequencing of the Economic Effects of Brexit

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 81-136

  4. UK, US and EU Perspectives

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 137-137
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    2. Aspects of British History and Policy

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 139-163

    3. Key Issues for the New British Government

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 165-174

    4. Medium-Term UK Macroeconomic Perspectives

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 175-188

    5. Brexit from a US Point of View

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 189-216

    6. Trump Policies Expected to Contradict 70 Years of American Principles and Rationale

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 217-227

    7. Can Brexit Be an Economic Success and What Effects Can Be Expected for the EU27?

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 229-242

  5. EU Developments

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 243-243
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    2. What Is the EU? A Redistribution and Trade Engine with a Political Element

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 245-257

    3. The History of European Integration and the Role of Rules

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 259-269

    4. EU Integration Perspectives After Brexit

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 271-283

    5. Eurozone Perspectives and Reform Needs

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 285-295

  6. Consequences

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 297-298
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    2. A Second Brexit Referendum: A Scenario for Staying in the EU

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 299-303

    3. Beyond Brexit: Inequality Dynamics and a European Social Market Economy

      • Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 305-351
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Keywords

About this book

This book analyzes how the EU referendum in the United Kingdom came to pass and what the foreseeable consequences are for the UK, Europe, US and world economy. The Brexit decision represents a momentous event for Europe, which weakens the EU and shifts the global balance of power. Welfens argues the EU has lost its appeal and is not in keeping with the twenty-first century, which is being shaped by Asia and digital innovations. The subject of immigration from EU countries played a key role in the Brexit decision, with an anti-EU campaign that was profoundly biased. The estimated impact of the referendum was deeply distorted by the broadly inadequate information produced by the Cameron government, which omitted the expected 10 percent loss in income caused by leaving the EU. With this this information, there could have been a clear pro-EU majority. In the absence of a second referendum, one cannot know what the British electorate really wants. Both the Brexit decision and new Presidentof the United States Donald Trump's approach to European disintegration dynamics also raise serious questions about the future of transatlantic relations.

Authors and Affiliations

  • European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW), University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany

    Paul J.J. Welfens

About the author

Paul J.J. Welfens is Jean Monnet Professor for European Economic Integration, Chair for Macroeconomics at the Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, and President of the European Institute for International Economic Relations at the University of Wuppertal, Germany. He is Research Fellow at IZA, Germany, and Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow at AICGS/Johns Hopkins University, USA.

 

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