Sean D. Foreman is Professor of Political Science at Barry University, USA, and the editor (alongside Marcia L. Godwin) of The Roads to Congress 2016. Read a chapter, “Florida Congressional Districts: The Names Change but Party Domination Stays the Same,” free until November 14.

The road to a congressional majority in 2018 runs, in part, through Florida. As a political scientist studying elections, and a Florida resident, I am closely watching the midterm elections unfold in one of the country’s key swing states. If Democrats are to capture control of the House of Representatives there are two districts they will need to win on election night. Districts 26 and 27 in south Florida are currently held by Republicans, even though voters in those territories voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump on the same ballot.

District 26 incumbent Republican Carlos Curbelo was first elected in 2014. He has positioned himself as a moderate particularly on immigration, climate change, and gay rights. Opponents have painted him as a party stalwart and a puppet of Speaker Paul Ryan. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the Democratic nominee, has experience in non-profit management and fundraising and ran an unsuccessful race for state senate in 2016. With the help of the DCCC and outside groups like Emily’s List, Mucarsel-Powell has run a well-funded campaign. In a debate on a Sunday morning talk show, their only joint appearance, nasty personal attacks dominated over substantive policy disagreements. The Cook Political Report rates this as a “toss-up” race while Sabato’s Crystal Ball put it at “leans Republican” as of October 25. It is looking like the incumbency advantage may help Curbelo and Republicans hold this seat, one that will certainly help determine the margin of victory for one party or the other.

The 27th District is targeted by Democrats as a pick-up because Clinton won this district by nearly 20 percent in 2016 even while the Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen won reelection by 10 points. When Ros-Lehtinen, the first Latina elected to Congress after winning a special election in 1989, announced she was retiring from her seat, it set off a scramble in both parties with open, competitive primaries. Donna Shalala squeaked out a tight win over several opponents after jumping in and shaking up the field of otherwise local candidates with less name recognition. Shalala served as Secretary of Health and Human Services for eight years under President Bill Clinton, and as president of the University of Miami. While her leadership at UM earned her connections and respect in Miami, her tenure was not without controversy, which makes for negative ads.  On the Republican side, another popular candidate joined the field relatively late but bested her primary foes. Maria Elvira Salazar, a popular and award-winning Spanish-language television personality, is making her first run for office. Salazar has often praised President Trump but is also trying to distance herself from him on some issues on the campaign trail like immigration and treatment of women. Polls are showing a tight race which has Democrats worried and Republicans energized since this was supposed to be as close to a slam dunk district for Democrats to win as exists. Despite not speaking Spanish, Shalala agreed to two debates in Spanish language forums, where she used translation services. Salazar has yet to follow through on her word to sit for a candidate forum in English with Shalala. The ratings have this Republican-held seat listed as “lean Democratic” and it should go that way on election night. If not, then Democrats are not likely to win as many seats as they are expecting to win.

A third district is less in play but could change hands if there is a true blue wave. Mario Diaz-Balart, a Republican, represents District 25 and has served in Congress since 2003. Diaz-Balart is being challenged by Mary Barzee Flores, an attorney and former local judge. Barzee Flores was nominated for a federal judgeship by President Obama after being recommended by Republican Sen. Marco Rubio. But Rubio later worked to block her nomination claiming Barzee Flores failed to disclose prior donations to liberal groups and for her connection to a controversial criminal case. Barzee Flores says this twist, along with the #metoo movement and her own experience, prompted her to run for Congress. Diaz-Balart has been criticized for taking contributions from the NRA and for failing to help advance solutions on immigration, health care, and affordable housing for his constituents. Still, Diaz-Balart is likely to win this seat unless there is an incredibly large blue wave in the midterm election.

I have written about these districts over the last several years in our biennial The Roads to Congress volumes. My chapter “Florida’s Congressional Districts: The Names Change but Party Domination Stays the Same” in our latest book The Roads to Congress 2016 reviewed the outcomes in all 27 Florida congressional districts. In 2008, I covered the three campaigns for the current 25, 26, and 27 Districts. That year some observers expected “Little Havana” to go blue with Cuban-American voters switching allegiance and supporting Democratic candidates. They did not. Ten years later the Republican Party advantage with Cuban-American voters has decreased but it still exists. The results this year in District 27 will provide a view as to what extent ethnic politics and speaking Spanish still matter in this heavily Hispanic district and whether voters send Salazar or Shalala to Congress.

But, of course, it is not just the House that election watchers across the country are following in 2018. Florida also has two titanic battles at the top of the ticket. Three-term U.S. Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat, is being challenged by the current governor, Rick Scott. This will be one of the most expensive Senate races in history, and the outcome will help to determine party control of the Senate. Democrats need to defend seats like Nelson’s, in swing states or red-learning states, as well as flip a couple of other seats to win the majority. This race is likely to remain very close through the ballot counting process.

As for the gubernatorial election, former congressman Ron DeSantis, a Republican, is facing Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum. Gillum, who enjoys support from both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, would be the first African-American governor of Florida. DeSantis defeated a more experienced opponent after he was endorsed early in the primary by Trump. Gillum has run on an unabashedly progressive platform, even drawing claims from critics that he is a socialist. The Florida governor’s race will be watched as a proxy match between the Trump faction of the Republican Party and the progressive wing of Democrats in the largest presidential swing state in the nation.

If several or all of these races are won by Democrats, they will be signs of a blue wave sweeping the nation. Republicans are hopeful they can hold on to some seats based on incumbency and pick up others due to aggressive campaigning and the relatively strong economic condition in the state today. Election watchers will have their eyes on Florida for clues as to how the election outcomes will unfold. At this point, the forecast does not clearly show that a blue wave is coming on election evening.