Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xii

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2. Introduction

   • Terence C. Mills

   Pages 1-11

3. ‘Classical’ Techniques of Modelling Trends and Cycles

   • Terence C. Mills

   Pages 13-37

4. Stochastic Trends and Cycles

   • Terence C. Mills

   Pages 39-73

5. Filtering Economic Time Series

   • Terence C. Mills

   Pages 75-102

6. Nonlinear and Nonparametric Trend Modelling

   • Terence C. Mills

   Pages 103-121

7. Multivariate Modelling of Trends and Cycles

   • Terence C. Mills

   Pages 123-147

8. Conclusions

   • Terence C. Mills

   Pages 149-150

9. Back Matter

   Pages 151-178

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Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. Terence Mills introduces these various approaches to allow students and researchers to appreciate the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.

• econometrics
• modeling
• time series

• Department of Economics, Loughborough University, UK

  Terence C. Mills

TERENCE C. MILLS is Professor of Applied Statistics and Econometrics and the Head of the department of Economics at Loughborough University. He previously held professorial appointments at City University business school and Hull. He is the author of Time Series Techniques for Economists and The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series, plus over one hundred articles in journals and books.

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